What Im hearing about Colton Paraykos Blues future and potential trade options

When Colton Parayko signed an eight-year, $52 million contract extension in September 2021, the “negotiations” between the Blues and the defenseman didn’t take long.

“It was very, very quick,” general manager Doug Armstrong said at the time.

Could the amount of time Parayko actually spends in St. Louis on that deal be quick, too?

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There’s been speculation for months surrounding the future of the 29-year-old with the Blues, and that ramped up Tuesday when TSN’s Darren Dreger wrote that he was “hearing action is starting to pick up.” In fact, Dreger referred to Parayko — who’s from St. Albert, Alberta — as an “Alberta boy,” which hinted at a possible deal with Edmonton, which went into the day searching for an upgrade on defense.

Hearing action is starting to pick up around Blues defenceman Colton Parayko. Alberta boy with a ton of term remaining. $6.5 million cap hit through 2029/2030. Stay tuned.

— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) February 28, 2023

The Oilers had been sniffing around NHL blue lines all season, including talks with teams about a couple of the biggest names on the market: San Jose’s Erik Karlsson and Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun. Asked early Tuesday how many defensemen he was looking at, general manager Ken Holland replied, “as many as I can.”

So the Oilers potentially being interested in a player like Parayko made sense.

But later in the day, Edmonton got a good one, trading for Nashville’s Mattias Ekholm, which seems to signal the end of any possibility of a deal involving Parayko. The Oilers did send right-shot defenseman Tyson Barrie to the Predators for the left-shot Ekholm, leaving them a little light on the right side, but the club now has less than $2 million in salary-cap space, and the belief is they’ll try to make another play for Karlsson in the offseason.

So what does that mean back in St. Louis? Where does that leave Parayko and his future with the Blues? Here’s what I’m hearing.

The season has gone sideways, and as we’ve seen with the trades of Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko and Ivan Barbashev, Armstrong is determined to make moves ahead of the March 3 trade deadline.

One source familiar with the Blues’ plans said they want to move a defenseman, and Parayko appears to be the likeliest candidate because of his poor performance this season, because the club could use the salary-cap room, and, while it sounds contradictory to those two factors, because there’s interest in him around the league.

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Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reported on Feb. 21 that Ottawa was among the clubs interested, but that seemed to hinge on the Senators’ ownership transition and whether there was enough authority at the moment to approve a deal such as his with seven years remaining.

Whether the Senators are still interested could be moot, though, as Parayko has a full no-trade clause and one source close to him told The Athletic that he’s said in the past he would only waive it to go to Edmonton and another said he wouldn’t be interested in going to Ottawa, specifically.

That could change, but it also made the Oilers possibility even more noteworthy Tuesday. As mentioned, though, Holland was casting a large net.

In terms of how far things actually got with Edmonton before the Oilers got a deal done with Nashville, Parayko’s agent said he was never asked to waive his no-trade clause.

And this is where Armstrong has to be careful. The Blues GM won’t request that a player waive his no-trade clause until he has a deal in place — as he did with Tarasenko. But this situation is different. Tarasenko was a pending unrestricted free agent, had requested a trade and Armstrong had a good inclination he’d be OK with the idea of playing for the Rangers.

With Parayko, he has said in the past that he wants to be with the Blues for his entire career, and, again, he has seven years left on his deal after this one and a full no-trade clause. The cat may be out of the bag now with regard to the Blues being willing to move him, but if he turns down a deal, there could be a strained relationship until a resolution is reached.

So what now?

Multiple sources said after Barbashev was traded to Vegas on Sunday that Armstrong wasn’t done dealing, though the type of transaction it would take to trade Parayko perhaps can’t be completed before Friday’s NHL trade deadline. Was Edmonton the Blues’ one shot before it’s brought up again in the summer?

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Before we get into the possibilities from here, I’ve brought in The Athletic’s analytics guru Dom Luszczyszyn to examine Parayko’s play — and value.

What does Dom think?

There was a time when Parayko was a bona fide No. 1 defenseman. Even when his numbers slipped, his reputation as one remained. He was on our top 100 players list before the season started for a reason.

But after the season he and the Blues have had, it’s getting harder and harder to see Parayko in that same light. This is the fourth straight season that Parayko’s expected goals percentage has been under 50 percent, dropping each year. His defensive numbers have also ballooned each year, going from 2.24 expected goals against per 60 minutes in 2019-20 to 2.29, 2.58 and 2.79 this season. His goals-against totals have followed.

Parayko plays very hard minutes, but the best defenders win those minutes. He hasn’t. Not for a while, and especially not relative to teammates. Over the past four seasons, the Blues’ expected goal differential is the same with Parayko on the ice as it is with him off, but their goal differential per 60 minutes is 0.3 worse. Among the 182 defenders to play 2,000 minutes in that timeframe, Parayko ranks 162nd — a shade ahead of Oliver Ekman-Larsson.

Ekman-Larsson is worth pointing out as a comparable because that’s the worst-case scenario here: a miscast No. 1 defender in decline entering his 30s on a huge problem contract after years of subpar numbers. That didn’t change for Ekman-Larsson with a change of scenery or role either: He had one bounce-back year after being traded from the Coyotes to the Canucks in July 2021 but is now worse than ever — his contract a millstone around Vancouver’s neck.

And a best-case scenario? Some might point to Hampus Lindholm’s resurgence after being traded from the Ducks to the Bruins at last year’s deadline. But there is a big difference in relative impact that makes the situations difficult to compare. In his last years with Anaheim, Lindholm’s expected and actual goals percentage were bad, but he still had a positive impact relative to teammates. His numbers were bad because of the Ducks. Parayko’s are bad in spite of the Blues, who have mostly been decent aside from this season — a season where Parayko has been part of the problem.

It’s a challenging situation to navigate. It’s very unlikely anyone still regards Parayko as a reputable No. 1, but where he falls after that is up for debate. That’s what makes it tricky as to whether the Blues should cut their losses with Parayko while he still has value or hold on to him, knowing it’s not his fault his results have been so poor.

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But even if you fall into the camp saying that Parayko’s numbers would improve in a better situation (stronger partner, better system, deeper team, lesser role), it’s still unlikely that the Blues can solve that situation themselves on this team.

St. Louis is facing a harsh reality after this season, and a decision on Parayko is an inflection point on that. Do they cut bait while he still has value and accept a new rebuilding direction? Or do they double down on an increasingly risky contract in the hopes that Parayko’s numbers aren’t a reflection of his future value?

It’s not an enviable position.

Where does it go from here?

If Armstrong can’t find a deal in the next 72 hours — one, of course, that Parayko would approve — this situation will carry into the offseason.

As the Blues continue their retool, they’re aware that changes need to be made on the blue line, and moving Parayko seems to be the only viable option.

One league source said there’s been no known interest in Torey Krug, 31, who has a full no-trade and four more years remaining on his contract with the same AAV as Parayko ($6.5 million). Krug has been nursing injuries this season, which has likely lessened any potential interest.

There’s the potential of the Blues moving defenseman Robert Bortuzzo, who is the longest-tenured St. Louis player at nine seasons, before the deadline. But that wouldn’t have the impact that the club is seeking on the back end.

It would take trading a player like Parayko, a scenario that seemed Tuesday like it might have some steam but now could be months away — if it happens.

(Photo: André Ringuette / NHLI via Getty Images)

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