The Big Board takes into consideration past returns, current situation/performance and expected future gains in determining who should be included among the Top 150 fantasy football players. Essentially, the Big Board is a cheat sheet designed for a GM who is planning to participate in a draft today. Half-point PPR scoring settings are used as the baseline for the Big Board. Note: This is the final version of 2023’s Big Board. thanks to everyone for reading, commenting, and trusting us with your team moves!
The Risers
- Nothing’s quite like NFL football, a lengthy marathon comprised of miniature max-effort sprints. Just when you think things are settling and becoming easier to predict, the Etch-a-Sketch gets shaken up, creating havoc across the fantasy landscape. Our first major riser’s been making his case for the Big Board over the last month…yet I’ve refused to respond — until now. Jordan Love put the football universe on notice, completing a statement win over the same Chiefs defense that just held the Eagles and Dolphins to 35 combined points. Over the Packers’ last four contests, Love’s staked a claim for mention in the top tier of QBs, posting Top 5 positional metrics in FPPG (22.0), Completions (95), Passing Yards/Game (286.5), +20 Yard Completions (18), Passing TD (10), TD/Attempt (5.8%), EPA/Attempt (+0.35), EPA/Dropback (+0.28), and EPA vs. Zone (+0.32). Toss in an extremely young but vastly improving WR room and I’m expecting more of the same to come with a soft schedule on the horizon.
- De’Von Achane’s monster Week 13 output (17-73-2; 3-30-0) flew in the face of my time-tested process, so consider today the opening date of my capitulation tour. No, I never doubted the undeniable talent or Miami’s strong surrounding offensive environment. “Avoid three-headed backfields” I told myself. Perhaps wedded too deeply to ancient fantasy axioms, I purposefully dropped Achane down the ranks with the return and subsequent utilization of Jeff Wilson (who got 14 touches in Week 12, for what it’s worth). Well, as I often say: player usage is the only immutable truth from NFL coaching staffs. The Dolphins hosted the Commanders with a double-digit spread on the board and Achane coming off two total touches in seven weeks. Obviously there was no chance he’d be heavily used in a blowout scenario… right? Wrong. In the second half of Sunday’s game, Achane handled five times (!) more snaps and carries than either Mostert or Wilson, telegraphing McDaniel’s intention for the rookie standout — landing him inside my Top 50.
- Fantasy football’s like Highlander — there can only be one. There’s no point in playing it safe with a single trophy up for grabs, so I have no shame in being aggressive when on-field utilization data points (image below) meet my personal favorite narrative; the post-bye-rookie-bump. Keaton Mitchell’s dynamic playmaking abilities continue to force the Ravens’ hand toward a more significant role, eventually out-snapping incumbent Gus Edwards against the Chargers. The undrafted free agent rookie leads the Baltimore backfield across the board since returning Week 9, with a remarkable 9.5 Yards/Carry, 68.0% Success Rate, 21.4% Explosive Rush Rate, and +12 Yards/Reception on his way to an NFL-best 0.71 Fantasy Points/Snap. If Baltimore’s to make a run, expect Mitchell to be at the center of it.
The Fallout
- Rookie WR sensation Tank Dell broke his fibula (sigh) against the Broncos, ending his season and effectively vaulting Noah Brown nearly fifty spaces into the weekly WR2 conversation. Despite posting a goose egg versus Denver on Sunday, I’m chalking that particular lack of production up to the first game back from injury. I’m not hesitating to hitch my wagon to Houston’s Top 5 pass game. They can hang with anyone right now, led by current NFL yardage champion C.J. Stroud. The future 2023 Rookie Of The Year (and possible MVP) has gotten it done regardless of the surrounding cast. Stroud’s trajectory is positively trending, plus we’ve already seen Noah Brown win weeks as the next man up this year. During that two game span between Week 9 and 10 before his own knee injury, Brown broke back-to-back slates as fantasy football’s overall WR3 going (13-325-1).
- What’s being described as a multi-week hamstring injury forced Commanders RB Brian Robinson from this weekend’s game versus Miami, opening the door for Antonio Gibson to once again leave his mark as a late-season fantasy option. He wound up leading Washington’s offense in carries and touch share against the Dolphins while dominating pass work. Don’t forget to factor in their bottom-of-the-barrel defense that’s going to keep them in predominantly negative game scripts. Gibson will likely cede some early down base work to Chris Rodriguez and that’s fine. Given the Commanders face the Rams, Jets, and Niners after their bye we can expect a healthy amount of targets rest-of-season to avoid a million more Sam Howell sacks.
John Laghezza's Top 150 ROS
(Top photo: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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